Don’t Worry About The Robots - Excerpt

‘Forty per cent of jobs to disappear in the next 20 years due to artificial intelligence!’ ‘Robots to replace humans!’ ‘The end of the nine-to-five working day!’ Every day we seem to read headlines that forecast a grim future for employment as we know it, amid speculation about which industries will be disrupted next. Commentators seize on expert opinion that claims we are facing a depressing readjustment in the size and nature of the global workforce, and that many of us will soon be past our use-by dates.

But what’s really going on here and, just as importantly, what can we do about it? How can we prepare ourselves for the changes that will occur in the workforce in the coming years?

Covid-19 reshaped the workplace

It is estimated that 144 million jobs disappeared as a direct result of Covid-19 and in the US alone up to one billion worker days were lost. Some of those – jobs in airlines, tourism and hospitality - have returned. Others have been redesigned and roles redeployed. Covid-19 accelerated the application of automation to many roles, eliminating jobs in food service, customer-facing roles and office support and this is forecast to continue over the coming years. In NZ, while unemployment did not rise as high as in other countries, part-time, casual or gig-workers were some of the hardest hit by job losses and reduced hours.

Humans are at their most resilient and inventive at moments of extreme pressure, and the pandemic saw science and technology respond rapidly and effectively in many areas. The development of mRNA and viral vector vaccines took months when it would normally have taken years. Students and teachers, accustomed to centuries of classroom-based teaching, switched over in a few weeks to online learning. The rest of us quickly became expert users of Zoom, Facebook Messenger and other digital channels to stay in touch with friends and family.

The desire for a worthwhile, meaningful job has accelerated, particularly for younger people. It has been found that a sense of control and a meaningful life was useful to manage the fear of Covid-19 and leads to improved mental health. One example given is the rapid growth of non-profit jobs in Australia – part of the search to make a difference.

Prior to Covid-19 the conversation was about work-life balance. Now it’s about the best way to achieve work-life integration. Our home has become for many an extension of the workplace and new behaviours and expectations have been created by this continued hybrid working. For both workers and their employers new approaches to communication, wellbeing, team engagement and career development have become necessary.

AI is everywhere

Artificial intelligence (AI) has now appeared on our desktops and in our consciousness and is predicted to have a profound effect on how we will work in the future. Some believe it will transform our industries and lifestyles as much as electricity did one hundred years ago.

Real-life applications of artificial intelligence have been with us for some time. As far back as 1997 IBM’s supercomputer Deep Blue made history by beating the reigning world chess champion, Garry Kasparov. What is new is the speed, scale and availability of the new forms of AI that are coming our way. Computers are now able to identify growth in cancer cells on X-rays with a greater level of accuracy than human medical staff. They can process in minutes millions of facial recognition routines for security forces, a job that no human could ever hope to do. The more examples used to “train” the computer, the more accurate it becomes.

In late November 2022 OpenAI, a US research organisation, released a free generative AI-powered chatbot based on its ChatGPT 3.5 Large Language Model which was trained on nearly the entire internet—about 500 billion words. This quickly became the fastest growing app ever released. It presents us with instant answers to almost any question in natural-sounding, conversational text. It can mimic human creativity on demand, constructing a poem, summarising a book or suggesting an essay plan. Suddenly many activities that previously required a decent knowledge of computer programming could be actioned by anyone with the ability to write plain language requests, or “prompts” as they have become known.

The ubiquitous availability of a web connection and smart phones has brought to those who can afford it a new digital world of thousands of applications designed to make our lives easier. The new alliance of chatbots with artificial intelligence such as ChatGPT and others is pushing the possibilities even further.

There is no doubt that work practices, whole industries and job categories are already being transformed as AI increasingly appears everywhere. Businesses are concerned. A global survey by New Zealand accounting software firm Xero showed that their customers are nervous about the pace of advances in AI, particularly with the prospect of generative AI becoming a tool central to accounting functions. 78% were worried legislation was not keeping up with AI development, and 44% considered worker displacement was the biggest ethical challenge around AI.

The concern appears valid. A recent analysis by the International Monetary Fund concludes that 40% of global employment is exposed to AI, and in advanced economies it could be as high as 60%. Half of these jobs may experience positive gain in productivity, the rest may see AI replacing the humans performing tasks. The IMF also foresees an increase in income inequality as a result.

Since the Industrial Revolution we have seen technology change jobs many times before – think cars replacing horses, desktop publishing disrupting design, drones replacing sheepdogs. It is the drivers, designers and farmers who embraced the new tools available that made the successful step into the future. Now it’s your turn.

Disrupt yourself to get ready for whatever’s next

Our message is simple—disrupt yourself and your thinking before something else does. Don’t wait for change, don’t ignore it and hope it will go away. Put yourself in the driving seat.

How do you do this? We worked with 12 New Zealanders who have built themselves successful careers and explored how they have learned to survive and thrive. Four clear themes emerged:

1. Know yourself – what are your driving values?
2. Know what’s around you – what’s most likely to impact you next?
3. Have a plan – be active in your learning about new technologies and careers
4. Look after yourself – your mental and physical health has never been more important

While the nature of work is undoubtedly changing quickly, our book is based on the belief that the future doesn’t have to mean bad news. We may look back in twenty years with amusement or nostalgia as we recollect how we used to live and what we considered to be worthwhile careers. But if we provide ourselves with both the skill set and the mindset to move with the times, we really don’t have to worry about the robots.